24 March 2014 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Disclaimer:
This piece of writing is merely a limited research
compiled from different sources and personal understanding. It is neither a
result of any proper research.
The
writer:
World Bank Projections/draft report
of June 2013/ indicate that “Ethiopia could potentially reach middle-income
status by 2025 if the historical growth momentum can be sustained. This, in
turn, may require a change in economic strategy and the way in which growth is
achieved. The current “big push” of public investment-led development has
delivered very positive results. However, the development of a strong and
vibrant private sector would eventually be needed to sustain high growth, as
the experience of other high performing countries demonstrates. A gradual phasing-in of the private sector in
Ethiopia, therefore, offers improved prospects for achieving the country’s
middle income aspirations”
In today’s more than we think interconnected
economy, acknowledgements of partners like the World Bank will definitely play
a vital role in creating government and public confidence in pushing the
growing economy forward.
Ethiopia as stipulated by the
government is at a transition point from mainly agricultural led economy to a
mixed economy and finally to industrial led economy. To sustain the double
digit growth of the economy recorded over the years and effect the intended
transition of the economy from agricultural led to industrial led, sustainable
power supply is important.
Ethiopia endowed with substantial
renewable energy resources, has put in place large scale power plant projects,
therefore. Rough estimates
place Ethiopia's total renewable
energy generation at
about 60,000 MW.
At the forefront
is hydropower, which has
been recognized for
decades as the
most valuable resource
with an estimated generation
capacity of over 45,000 MW or 75% of renewable energy potentials. Despite the available
potential, Ethiopia has been experiencing energy shortages and is struggling to
meet growing electricity demand. Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO
now split in to EU and EEP), a government-owned corporation responsible for
power generation, transmission,
distribution, and sales
of electricity all
over the nation,
supplied electricity to consumers
approximately 90% of which came from hydropower.
According to the growth and
transformation plan/ GTP/, Ethiopia has planned
and working hard to increase the generating
capacity of the nation up to 10, 000MW
at the end of the plan period (2014/15).
If the plan successfully completed, it is
believed that it could not only meet domestic electricity demands, which
currently outpaces supply, but also produce a significant surplus for export.
Among other grand projects, Great
Ethiopian renaissance dam/GERD/,which will be one of the best and greatest achievements
of the nation ever in a generation is under
construction/reported 30% completion at this stage/ is making the headlines all
over the world. It is geographically located in the west of the country in Benishangul-Gumuz
regional state with coordinates of N11 12’ 51’’, E35 05’35’’, a distance of 400km
away from the capital Addis Ababa, a dam of size 74*106 cubic meter
of reservoir, equivalent to twice the size of lake Tana, with a total capacity
of 6000MW/16*375Mw Francis turbines/, 15,692.00 GWH annual production of energy
and a total construction cost of USD 4.8b.
Critics suggested that the plant’s
load factor is estimated to be 33% which is smaller than other small hydro
power plants’ load factors/ which is about 45-60%/.
From technical point of view, a load
factor is the ratio of average load to the maximum demand during a given period
.Higher load factor means, therefore, lesser maximum demand. The station
capacity is so selected that it must meet the maximum demand. So, lower maximum
demand again means lower capacity of the plant which, therefore, reduces the
cost of the plant. A high load factor reduces the overall cost per unit
generated. In short, the higher the load factor, the lower is the generation
cost. It is because higher load factor means that for a given maximum demand,
the number of units generated is more. This reduces the cost of generation.
A high load factor also reduces the
variable load problems on the power station. A higher load factor means
comparatively less variations in the load demands at various times. This avoids
the frequent use of regulating devices installed to meet the variable load on
the station.
This hydro power plant is highly
dependent on seasonal rain so, to raise the load factor, the size of the reservoir
and other parameters must be increased which again has an effect on the cost
and uproar of the downstream countries.
The successful completion of this
dam has a triple standard outcome to Ethiopia.
Firstly, afraid of international
influence, the cost of the plant is mainly designed meant to be covered with
the local resources. If successful, it will boost the foundation for an
internal confidence. If we can build a dam of the GERD size, there is no way we
failed to build other comparatively smaller projects of similar nature.
Secondly, Blue Nile has always been
a major reason for regional controversies. Ethiopia has been a victim of
regional conflicts sponsored by those who have a direct interest on river Blue
Nile, instead of sharing the blessings of it. Therefore, the successful
completion of the dam will stop such greedy and historically unfair players and
mark the end of the controversy for once and for all and sit around the table
for win-win discussions in the times ahead.
Finally, the economy in general and
the industry in particular, is highly dependent on energy. If the growing economy
is energized with additional four fold of the existing energy supply/ GERD
only/, it will be a guarantee ticket for sustainability. The manufacturing
industry, which is low at this stage, leveraging the energy growth, will
contribute more to the already vibrant economy.
So, the overall benefit of the dam
outweighs the critics by far. As Ethiopians, we don’t feel bad had the money
been spent even for such national prides only.
Balancing the pressure of the
geopolitics on the one hand and pushing the progress of the controversial
project forward on the other hand is really a practical test for Ethiopia.
However with the commitment of the government and the people at hand, it seems
almost a success for both. A lot is yet to be done in the coming years in
general and during next year’s national election in particular, not to fall
victim of consistently inconsistent opportunists, and be able to predict the
unpredictable’s and close doors of any sort. For whatsoever reason, the sooner
is the better.
In the mean time Ethiopians send a message
to the world saying:
“We have been blamed for being poor
for decades. So, at this very high time, we deserve international support in
our unreserved effort to come out of that threshold line. No one has the right
to decide we stay poor while others are enjoying luxuries with our own
resources so unfairly. We have to take historical mistakes more seriously than
ever. When the dynamics say it economy, power, intergovernmental relations,
awareness of reality, changes; it shall not come at a cost of historical
mistakes again.
And to their Egyptian friends:
You say “The water of the Nile is
only ours and we only have the right to do with it for whatever reason we like
to do with”:
We say “The water of Blue Nile/Abay/
is ours but it has been our culture to share with our neighbors. So, we proposed
to you, Egyptians and of course Sudanese, to have a drink from our Abay with us”.
Again we say’’ Thank you Sudanese
for accepting our proposals and hope Egyptians will join our club whenever they
need to, but till then no worth noising”.
We also would like to remind you,
specially the old generation, to understand
‘What is meant by an international
treaty? Do you still believe that is a binding for an entity x which is not part of the treaty if entities y and z agreed to be ruled by. We are bored
of hearing 1959 and 1929 agreements. You better stand up for a deal of mutual
and long lasting benefit rather than brain washing the new generation’. How
dare you believe in a treaty where someone else makes a deal in your behalf
even if it is in your favor?
Ethiopia is not Egyptian water reservoir anymore!
Thanks for Reading!
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